Investment bank Jefferies recently upgraded its forecast for Macau’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP 237 billion (approximately US $29.3 billion), aligning above the revised government projection and signaling renewed investor optimism. This upbeat outlook stems from a solid first half of the year, which saw GGR climb 4.4 percent year-on-year to MOP 118.8 billion, driven largely by robust performance in May and June.

Entertainment and VIP Tailwinds Bolster Growth Trajectory

Key to this optimistic forecast are high-profile entertainment events and VIP gameplay fueling demand. Jefferies analysts noted that GGR in early July rose about 9 percent year-on-year, thanks in part to the Jacky Cheung concert series at Galaxy Arena and a higher-than-average VIP win rate. Despite a slight dip—around 10 percent compared to late June—the start of Q3 is still seen as encouraging, given the usual seasonal slowdown during this period. “This is a good start to 2H 25, considering the third quarter is usually a low season,” the analysts remarked.

Optimism Extends into 2026 and 2027 with Smart Market Share Plays

Jefferies’ bullish long-term outlook extends into the mid-term: they forecast GGR growth of 3.5 percent in 2026, reaching MOP 245 billion, followed by another 3.4 percent increase to MOP 254 billion in 2027. The forecast reflects expectations that Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China will increase their market share, while Sands China is poised to catch up under renewed strategic focus.

Broader Market Confidence Despite Government Caution

While Macau’s government has trimmed its 2025 GGR forecast—lowering it by roughly 5 percent from MOP 240 billion to MOP 228 billion amid macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving tourist behavior—Jefferies maintains a more optimistic stance. This divergence underscores investor confidence in the resilience of Macau’s premium and entertainment-led segments, even as external headwinds persist.